Hiring Pace to Remain the Same, Says CareerBuilder-USA Today Forecast
Chicago — April 2
CareerBuilder.com, an online job site, and USA Today released the results of their latest survey, conducted by Harris Interactive, tracking projected hiring trends for the upcoming quarter. The survey, titled “Q2 2008 Job Forecast,” was conducted from Feb. 11 to March 13 among 2,757 hiring managers and human resource professionals in private sector companies.
“The job loss reported in the first quarter signified a gradual deceleration in recruitment in the U.S. as the nation's economy downshifted,” said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder.com. “In the next three months, employers anticipate marginal change in their hiring pace. While some industries are experiencing a contraction in employment levels, areas such as information technology, health care, professional and business services and sales continue to add full-time jobs.”
Hiring in Q1 2008
Thirty-one percent of employers said they increased their number of full-time, permanent employees from January through March, while 57 percent reported no change and 11 percent reported a reduction in headcount. One percent was unsure.
When asked if hours had changed, on average, for hourly workers in Q1 year over year, 59 percent reported no change in the number of hours offered. Eleven percent reported hours were increased, while 12 percent said hours were cut and 5 percent were unsure.
Hiring in Q2 2008
Looking ahead, 29 percent of employers plan to grow their number of full-time, permanent employees from April through June, while 59 percent anticipate no change and 6 percent expect to decrease headcount. Six percent are unsure.
Hiring by Region
The Midwest continues to trail behind other regions when it comes to adding new hires. Twenty-five percent of employers in the Midwest expect to increase their number of full-time, permanent employees in the second quarter compared to 31 percent in the West and Northeast and 30 percent in the South. Eight percent of employers in the Northeast plan to reduce staff levels, followed by 7 percent in the South, 6 percent in the Midwest and 5 percent in the West.
Hiring by Industry
Certain industries and functions continue to outpace other areas in terms of producing new jobs. Forty-five percent of IT employers expect to add full-time, permanent employees in the second quarter followed by 36 percent in sales, 32 percent in professional and business services and 30 percent in large health care organizations.
Hiring by Company Size
Thirty-three percent of employers with more than 250 employees expect to add full-time, permanent positions in the next three months, compared to 32 percent of those with 51 to 250 employees and 22 percent of those with one to 50 employees.
Eleven percent of hiring managers reported there were layoffs at their locations in the first quarter. Seven percent anticipate there will be layoffs in the next three months. Eighty-three percent expect no change, while 10 percent are unsure.
Compensation in Q2 2008
The shortage of skilled labor has motivated more competitive compensation packages. Seventy percent of employers anticipate providing an increase in salaries for full-time, permanent employees in the second quarter. Forty-one percent estimate the average raise to range between 1 and 3 percent, 27 percent expect an average raise of 4 to 10 percent while 2 percent expect raises to be 11 percent or more. Twenty-four of employers anticipate no change in compensation levels, 2 percent expect a decrease and 5 percent are unsure.
Thirty-eight percent of employers report they have positions for which they can't find qualified candidates. Although the job market has softened, opportunities are still available, and workers are responding.
Twenty-one percent of workers expect to change jobs in the next 12 months; one in 10 plan to do so within the next six months.
This survey was conducted online within the U.S. by Harris Interactive on behalf of CareerBuilder.com among 2,757 hiring managers and human resource professionals (employed full-time; not self-employed; with at least significant involvement in hiring decisions); and 6,897 U.S. employees (employed full-time; not self-employed) ages 18 and older between Feb. 11 and March 13. With a pure probability sample of 2,757 and 6,897, one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 1.9 percentage points and +/- 1.2 percentage points, respectively. Sampling error for data from sub-samples is higher and varies. A full methodology is available upon request.